AUSTIN, Texas — A new poll released Monday morning from Nexstar and Emerson College showed 69 percent of Democrats in Texas think Donald Trump will …
“[They] may well be influenced by the fact that Texas was more competitive in 2018, and the reasonable notion that these conditions might continue into 2020.” That tells us that we can expect to be under the microscope more than we’ve been in the past. Interesting, but nonetheless reading too much into a poll this early is more for political junkies than people who want an accurate read of an electorate that’s by and large not paying too much attention.Copyright © 2020.
Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, and Kamala Harris were all over 45 percent in the poll.
RELATED: Poll shows Texans reserved about returning to normal life as Texas begins to reopen; Director of Emerson College Polling Spencer Kimball … “You find out more about broadly partisan attitudes and name recognition than you do election preferences, which for most people are as yet unformed in any specific way.” Biden, as the putative frontrunner, is running a campaign based largely on the idea that he’s the Democrat most likely to best Trump. Biden’s name recognition is near-universal, while Bernie and Beto (at least in Texas) are pretty close, and the results show that almost any Democrat most voters have heard of runs neck-and-neck with Trump in this polling.
While the post-August-2019 Republican lean of Emerson College polls for the three current polling leaders for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination—former Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts United States Senator (“Senator”) Elizabeth Warren and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders—is apparent, it is most notable for Biden. At first blush, Biden’s lead in this poll would seem to support his case for electability, but the real takeaway is probably that the three candidates with the most name recognition in the state are all polling competitively in Texas, which speaks more to Texas’s position as a potential swing state than it does to Biden’s potential strength against Trump.“Pollsters swim in the same ocean of media coverage as everyone else,” Henson says, so pollsters who might have ignored the state in the past are looking at it now. You’re probably familiar with the stats: A whole generation has been born, grown up, and started families since the last time Texas elected a Democrat to statewide office; the fact that Jimmy Carter was the last Presidential candidate with a D by his name to win the state. All Rights Reserved.Bottom-line: The early read is that, for both the presidential and Senate elections, polling indicates Texas is likely to be more competitive than it’s been in decades, and pollsters and campaigns are likely to treat us more like a swing state than a solid red state, which is a change.
Partisanship is determined by who sponsors the poll, rather than who conducts it. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=799, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.4 percentage points. The sample has a margin of error of 5.3 percentage points.The contents of this site are ©2020 Capitol Hill Publishing Corp., a subsidiary of News Communications, Inc.“It looks like Beto O’Rourke does not have Texas locked up," Spencer Kimball, director of the Emerson Poll, said in a statement.Biden received the support of 23 percent of the likely Democratic primary voters in the Lone Star State who were polled, while O'Rourke was the favored pick for 22 percent of respondents.The Hill 1625 K Street, NW Suite 900 Washington DC 20006 | 202-628-8500 tel | 202-628-8503 fax
The 2020 United States presidential election in Texas is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. The latest Emerson College/Nexstar Media polls of Texas, California, and Ohio show President Donald Trump with a slight advantage in Ohio and Texas in the general election against presumptive Democratic nominee former Vice President Joe Biden. The Texas Emerson College poll was conducted April 25-28, 2019 under the Supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. The Emerson College poll surveyed 342 likely Texas Democratic primary voters between April 25-28. The state of Texas has 38 electoral votes in the Electoral College. See how President Trump is polling against challenger Joe Biden as each vies to win the 2020 presidential election.
The poll had Biden ahead of Trump, but it also had Beto O’Rourke tied at 50-50, and Bernie Sanders trailing at 49-51. The Emerson College poll surveyed 342 likely Texas Democratic primary voters between April 25-28. The sample has a margin of error of 5.3 percentage points. View the results of 2016 election polls from Texas. For everything else, it’s too early to draw many conclusions.Enter your email below to send a password reset email.The fact that Biden was over 50 percent in the poll is significant, but not for what it tells us about Joe Biden.
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